A poll released by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal on Sunday showed that 68 percent of American voters couldn’t imagine themselves casting a vote in the general election for Trump, while 61 percent said the same about Ted Cruz and 58 percent about Clinton.
A much, much higher percentage of voters viewed each of these three unfavorably than favorably. ‘‘Unpopularity Contest’’ was the headline on the story on the NBC News website, which rightly asked how well any president of such polarizing effect would be able to govern.
We’ve had such presidents (and candidates) before. And pessimism isn’t new.
But there have been developments and differences in 2016 that may well be making the situation worse.
The media, for one. When you treat a campaign as if it were an athletic competition, you turn it into more of a blood sport than it already is. And when you breathlessly promote it the way you would a hit TV show’s season finale, it becomes just another piece of theater. Neither approach encourages sober-minded engagement.
Nor does the manner in which so many voters use the Internet in general and social media in particular, to curate and wallow in echo chambers that amplify their prejudices, exacerbate their tribalism and widen the fault lines between us.
- To prevail, a candidate doesn’t even have to persuade an especially large share of the electorate, given how splintered and detached voters are. In an important commentary published in The Hill on Monday, the Democratic pollster and strategist Mark Penn extrapolated from Trump’s and Clinton’s vote tallies to note that, in his estimation, ‘‘We now have a system in which it takes just 10 million votes out of 321 million people to seize one of the two coveted nominations.’’
‘‘The result,’’ he wrote, ‘‘is a democracy that is veering off course, increasingly reflecting the will of powerful activist groups and the political extremes.’’ Would-be nominees needn’t worry much about the roughly 40 percent of Americans who at least technically consider themselves independents — a group that’s grown over the last decade — or the 60 percent who say that a third political party is needed.
No, these candidates ‘‘can just double down on elements of their base,’’ Penn observed. ‘‘Rather than bring the country together, they demonize their opponents to hype turnout among select groups, targeted by race, religion or ethnicity.’’
- Penn suggested several smart reforms to increase voters’ participation and sense of investment, including the abolition of caucuses and a rotation of the order in which states vote, so that Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina don’t always get such outsize sway.
I wish we could also find a way to shorten these presidential campaigns significantly, so that they’re not such a soul-draining, throat-ravaging turnoff to almost anyone who’s not an epic narcissist or mired in politics to the point of no return.
Then maybe we’d look up one of these years and be choosing among the greater of goods, not the lesser of evils, and the victor would be left, physically and ideologically, with a voice that still carries.
Frank Bruni writes for The New York Times.